Poker Tournaments – Perspectives on Volume and Variance

Do you get frustrated playing poker tournaments? You play all the time, and it seems like you never cash. And even when you do, you cash the minimum. Every once in a while, you get teased with a deep run only to run Kings into Aces – resulting in another broken mouse.

As you gain experience, you learn that you need to get comfortable running badly to be successful as a poker player. This is even more prevalent if you are a poker tournament specialist. But no matter how experienced you are, these bad runs can test you and make you question your skill level. This is especially true if you are an amateur poker player who only plays a handful of weekly tournaments. You can go months without cash, and this time in between, money can skew your view of reality and affect your play.

Now if you read enough poker forums and websites, you will hear about all the online tournament pros regularly taking down five and six-figure cash. They paint this picture of guys making final tables and raking in money. You may even be jealous and wonder, “What do those guys have that I don’t?” I hope this article will help answer that question and provide much-needed perspective on volume and variance.

Amateur Poker Players vs. Pros

Amateurs – For this article, an amateur player plays about 1-3 times per week, usually at night. They have a “real job” and may have a family or are in full-time college, so they can only put in part-time hours. But make no mistake, this player is serious about the game and spends time on poker forums, watching training videos, etc. Since we’re talking about tournament poker, the amateur in this article plays mostly large-field, no-limit, hold’em tournaments. They may be a winning player, break even, or maybe a little loser in the game thus far in their career.

Pros – Professionals play online poker as their sole source of income. For this article, we use those specializing in large-field online poker tournaments.

The Stats

Before reading too deep into these numbers, remember that this article aims to provide perspective into your results by comparing them to the effects of other players. It is not meant to be a scientific study.

The numbers below represent an average of 10 players from each category and use results from both Full Tilt Poker and PokerStars from 2010. The pro stats were taken from 1/1/10 until 8/22/10, and the amateur stats were taken from 1/1/10 until 9/20/10. They only include tournaments with over 180 players.

Pros* Amateurs* # Played 3557 661.5 Avg Played/Day** 21.5 3.58 In the Money 13.10% 15.7% Final Tables 3.13% 2% Top 3 1.36% 0.54% Top 3 when at Final Table 43.61% 28.09% Wins 0.73% 0.22% ROI 77.65% 19.68% Longest Non-Cash Streak 47 22.5

* Pro stats were taken from ranking the top 10 online tournament players. Amateur stats were taken from a sample of 10 amateur players who volunteered their screen names for use in this study.

**Avg. Played/Day is based on a five-day week and only includes playing two sites. The daily volume may be larger for those playing more than two sites and less than five days a week.

What Do These Stats Mean?

As you can see, the pros are not these mythical beasts who always cash and are at the final table every tournament. Media attention can sometimes give off a false reality as it only highlights their wins and never mentions how many losses it took to get there.

The realities are:

• Even the top pros only win tournaments less than 1% of the time. For some, it was as low as 0.60%. So this means they are winning only 1 out of every 100 times. Of course, variance doesn’t always come on schedule, and they can go 200-300 tournaments without a win.
• Top pros only final table around 3% of the time. Some are as low as 2%.
• The top pros are only cashing about 13% of the time. This means they lose money 87% of the time they play! Amateurs cash more often than pros. The difference is that when pros do cash, they cash deep more often.
• Pros have massive downswings like everyone else. Because of the volume they play, they have had longer non-cash streaks.

Why have the pros averaged a $400,000 profit this year before September? It is in their ability to close tournaments. There is a reason why their ROI is 58% higher. Let’s look at the stats:

• Pros make 1/3 more final tables than amateur poker players.
• At a nine-person final table, the average of hitting the top 3 should be 33%. Pros are hitting this 43.61% of the time.
• Of the times they cash, pros are final tabling almost twice as often as amateurs (23.9% compared to 12.8%).
• Pros finish in the top 3 nearly 3x as often as amateurs.
• Volume, volume, volume. Let’s not forget that pros play all Day, every Day. This is their job. They have a distinct advantage of overcoming bad variance much quicker and seeing “the long run” of making faster profitable decisions.

Keep in mind that the group of amateurs used were volunteers from various poker forums. While not all were winning players, the fact that they study the game says they likely have better results than an average amateur. Also, because of their volume size, an amateur’s skills may be better or worse than their results.

Improving Your Game

How can you use these stats to improve your game?

Add More Tables

Get outside your 1-3 tabling comfort zone and add more tables. I know the argument is that it’s harder to make reads, but the volume you put in will make up for that. In addition, this extra volume means you are playing more hands and will improve your game even faster. This different experience will compensate for the short-term loss of a perfect read.

Play More Days

Just try to add one more day per week. Don’t be lazy. If you play seven tournaments daily, adding one more day x 52 weeks = 364 more tournaments/year. Even at the amateur ROI above 20% and average buy-in of $30, that means an extra $2,184 in profit.

Stop Caring About Individual Tournaments

It’s easy to expend emotional energy in any single poker tournament. You’re trying to win, of course. But the odds are that you’re not going to. You’re only going to cash about 15% of the time. All you can do is make good decisions, and the variance will work itself out.

Play for the Win

There’s a reason why amateurs cash more than pros. They care more about it and tighten up near the bubble. But you will miss valuable opportunities to accumulate chips if you play just to cash. In addition, you can’t fear busting or making a mistake when you get deep. To make real money playing poker tournaments, you must trust your instincts and play to win.

Don’t sweat it if you’ve ever grown frustrated playing poker tournaments. Remember that even the best players in the world don’t win that often. The only way to balance out negative variance is to put in enough volume where your skill can prevail.

The Mental Game of Poker

Managing your mental state is as crucial as making strategic decisions in the roller coaster of poker tournaments. The emotional swings can be intense whether you’re an amateur or a pro. Let’s delve into the psychological aspects of the game and explore ways to stay focused and positive even during challenging runs.

Navigating Tilt

Tilt is the nemesis of every poker player, and learning to navigate it is a skill in itself. Understanding the triggers, recognizing when you’re on the verge, and employing strategies to regain composure can turn a potential disaster into a bump in the road. We’ll explore practical tips to keep tilt at bay and maintain a clear mindset.

Bankroll Management

Effective bankroll management is the backbone of long-term poker success, regardless of your skill level. We’ll discuss the importance of setting aside a dedicated poker bankroll, understanding the risk of ruin, and making informed decisions about buy-ins to ensure the game remains enjoyable without causing financial stress.

The Art of Bluffing

Bluffing is an integral part of poker, but it’s a double-edged sword that requires finesse. We’ll dive into bluffing, examining when to employ this tactic, how to read opponents for optimal success, and the psychological aspects that make a well-timed bluff a powerful weapon in your poker arsenal.

Evolution of Online Poker

The poker landscape has evolved significantly, especially in the online realm. We’ll explore how the game has changed, the impact of advancing technology, and how players can adapt their strategies to stay competitive in an ever-evolving environment.

Conclusion

Every poker player embarks on a unique journey in the intricate dance of skill, variance, and mental resilience. The statistics may tell a story, but the true essence lies in the dedication to improvement and the ability to weather the storms. Whether you’re grinding through countless tournaments as a pro or juggling poker with a “real job” as an amateur, remember that the poker journey is as much about the process as it is about the results. Embrace the challenges, continually refine your skills, and may the river cards flow in your favor. Good luck at the tables!