Heads-up Match-ups in Hold’em: Ultimate Poker Showdown!
In this lesson, we will run several heads-up match-ups that will help give you an idea of where you stand in various pre-flop situations when playing hold’em. Be aware that we’re only going to focus on individual hand match-ups. When playing hold’em, you must put your opponent on a range of hands rather than specific holdings. However, knowing the odds of common pre-flop match-ups is a good starting point. Pick out and study what will help you. While these statistics don’t have to be committed to memory, it won’t hurt you if you do.
Hand match-ups
Let’s start by looking at hand match-ups when holding a pair:
Pair vs. Pair
The higher pair is an 80 percent favorite. We can get very technical and highlight that if the underpair had no clean suits and the maximum number of straight-outs, the high pair’s equity would increase by one or two percent.
Pair vs. Overcards
This is the classic coin flip hand you’ll see many times late in tournaments, with one player being all-in. The term coin flip indicates an even money situation of 55 to 45 percent, as the pair is a slight favorite.
Pair vs. Undercards
In this situation, the pair is normally about a 5-to-1 favorite and can vary depending on whether the two undercards are suited and connectors.
Pair vs. Overcard and an undercard
The pair is about a 70 percent favorite. Another example of this holding would be J-J against A-9. The underdog non-paired hand has three outs, while the famous have redraws.
Pair vs. Overcard, and one of that pair
The classic example of this situation is the confrontation between a pair of cowboys and big slick. The A-K has three outs and becomes a 70-30 percent situation or a 2.3-to-1 dog for the Cowboys. This is a far cry from the next situation where even though one of the pair is matched, the other card is lower.
Pair vs. Undercard and one of that pair
The nonpair has to hit its Undercard twice or make a straight or flush to prevail. The team is better than a 90 percent favorite or slightly better than 10-to-1 odds. I’ll take those odds anytime.
Pair vs. Lower suited connectors
You see this match-up late in tournaments when a player gets desperate and pushes all in with middle-suited connectors. A hand such as Q-Q against 7-6 would be a prime example. The pair is a strong favorite to win.
Pair vs. Higher suited connectors
Here is the real coin-flip situation. A pair of eight heads-up against a suited Q-J is a fifty-fifty proposition. The higher-suited cards would have an edge against a lower team, such as 2’s or 3’s, since the board can sometimes destroy little pairs.
Common Pre-Flop Match-Ups (Non-Pairs)
The following heads-up confrontations contain no pairs.
Two high cards vs. Two undercards
The two higher cards are usually a 65% favorite to win, but it can vary depending on whether any of the cards are suited and connectors.
High card, low card vs. Two middle cards
In this match-up, the high card gives it the edge. But it’s only a marginal winner, approximately 57% to the hand containing the high card.
High card, middle card vs. Second highest, low card
The edge is increased by around 5% when the low card becomes the third highest card, as shown in this example, which gives approximately 62% to 38% for the high/middle card combination.
High card, same card vs. Same card, low card
In this example, the A-J is in a very strong position. If we discount any flush or straight possibilities, it only leaves the player holding J-8 with three outs (the three remaining 8’s).
Same high card, high kicker vs. Same card, low kicker
The high kicker gives this hand a fairly big edge. It’s very common for A-K to run into A-Q, A-J, and lower, and it’s why Ace-king is such a strong hand, particularly at the business end of no-limit hold’em tournaments when people move all-in with any Ace.
Statistical Variations
For any math maniacs reading this who do not find these odds precise enough, I acknowledge that the math is rounded and, for the most part, does not consider the possibilities of ties and back door straights and flushes. What players need to be equipped with is the general statistical match-up – not the fact that in the example of a pair of eights against a suited Q-J, the percents are exactly 50.61 for the eights to 48.99 for the suited connectors with the balance going to potential ties. I call that a fifty-fifty proposition.
Of greater importance than quibbling over tenths of a percent is that you can never be a prohibitive underdog in most heads-up confrontations. That is one reason why poker is so challenging and fun. Of course, while true, I’m not attempting to encourage the reader to ignore the odds and become a maniac. Math is the underpinning of poker, and if you regularly get your money into the middle with the worst of it, you will go broke.
One statistic that hasn’t been mentioned, and it’s one that I particularly like, is this – the odds of both players being dealt Aces when playing heads up (one on one) is 270,724-to-1. It’s my favorite statistic because it gives me almost total confidence when I play leads up and receives pocket Aces that I’m the boss! That confidence lasts up to the river when my Aces get cracked by some rotten piece of cheese my opponent elected to play. As mentioned already, rarely are you a prohibitive underdog – so remember that to keep those losing hands in perspective.
