Phil Ivey Reads Souls
Situation: Head’s up at the Monte Carlo Millions vs. Paul Jackson
Blinds: 12K/24K + 4K ante
Stacks: Phil has about a 4-1 chip lead. Jackson has roughly $1 million in chips.
On this hand, we will play as if we are Phil Ivey. The big disclaimer is that a hand like this does not come around often. Analyzing it after the fact doesn’t do justice since it is heavily based on Phil’s read on his opponent. But it is still a great example of putting your opponent on a hand, sensing weakness, and trusting your instincts. It should also be noted that Phil overheard Paul telling a friend that he would note Phil push him around before writing.
Pre-Flop:
Jackson limps in with Ivey, raises $60K more, and Jackson calls.
Analysis: Since this is a head-up play, putting each opponent on a hand is a little harder without seeing the players’ history. However, we can make some generalizations based on the optimum head-up strategy and what we know about our reads so far. As Ivey, we are raising about 3.5x the big blind. Based on our 4-1 chip lead, we want to continue to put pressure on our opponent, and since our opponent just limped in, we could do this with a wide range of hands. After a brief pause, Jackson calls so we can now assign his degree to hands that weren’t strong enough to raise but those he wanted to see a flop with. It is certainly possible that Jackson could be varying his betting patterns by limping with an Ace or some other big hand, but based on the chip counts, he likely wanted to see the flop for cheap. Let’s put Jackson’s range as low-to-mid-suited and unsuited connectors, one and two gapers 56-JT, Q2-Q8s, K2-K8 suited and off-suit (though he more than likely raises with a King). Based on hand strength and the need to build his stack, he probably presents all pairs Q9-QJ, K9-KQ, and Ax.
The Flop:
The pot is now $176K. Phil makes a continuation bet of $80K, and after contemplating for a while, Jackson raises to $170K. Ivey now re-raises to $320K, and Jackson returns over the top for $150K more. Ivey goes all in and leaves Jackson no other choice but to fold.
Analysis: Jackson is making a little over the minimum raise after Ivey’s continuation bet. On other flops, this might be the sign of a strong hand because it’s deceiving, but in this case, the board shows a pair of Jacks making non-concealed trips. If he did have a Jack, he wouldn’t want Ivey to know it so he could maximize his winnings. He would have more likely just called since he knows Ivey can fire a second bullet on the turn. It’s certainly possible Jackson could have a Jack and is protecting against the flush draw, but if that were the case, he would raise more so that Ivey didn’t have the odds to call. Also, only a couple of hands would not have raised pre-flop, called the raise pre-flop (J8, J9, and JT).
So what hands can we put him on? He could have a seven, and he’s trying to see where he’s at. Maybe he limped with a big pair like QQ-AA and is afraid of Jack? He could also be on a pure bluff. But you can’t completely discount the possibility of some 4th-level thinking and his having a Jack and raising to make Ivey think he didn’t have one.
So after Jackson’s first raise to $170K, Ivey re-raises to $320K for two purposes: One is because he doesn’t believe Jackson and wants him to fold, and the other is to gain more information about the strength of Jackson’s hand.
Jackson now raises the minimum again, only $150K more. While the concept of Jackson rising back here is scary, the size of his raise makes it less believable that he has a Jack. Also, his raised size is curious. If he had a Jack here, why is he raising the minimum now that Ivey is showing strength? He only has $530K behind before the raise. If he had a Jack, wouldn’t he call the raise and hope Ivey puts him all in on the turn? OR, he should think that Ivey has a hand that can reach an all-in with and shove all-in. So basically, he’s raising an amount that leaves him chips if Ivey should come back over the top.
Let’s also look at physical poker tells. Ivey asks Jackson how much he has left. While he answers, he swallows big and keeps his hand over his mouth. He’s nervous here. We must also remember Phil overheard Paul Jackson on the break saying he wouldn’t let Phil push him around. Not that this is a cut & dry hand, but once you factor everything together, Ivey makes a great read and concludes that Jackson can’t call off his remaining chips without a Jack.
